Ten states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, and South Dakota — have already secured abortion measures on the 2024 ballot. All eyes are on Florida, where a slight increase in women voters regarding the reproductive rights issue could affect races up and down the ballot. Florida will be one of those states to keep an eye on.
In key states like Arizona and Nevada, strong voter turnout could help keep these states in the Democratic column and elect two senators. Montana is also a tight race; women must turn out in large numbers to keep Senator Tester in office. Recent racist remarks about Native Americans by the Republican candidate could lower his support.
Florida has not yet been made a key target for the Democrats, but there is significant energy in the state around abortion rights, and the gap is narrowing.
Women have outnumbered male voters since 1964, and this trend will likely continue, especially with a woman of color running for the presidency and abortion on the ballot in many states.
Although financial support has traditionally been controlled by men, the Democratic Presidential Candidate has broken that barrier by raising over $500 million in a short time and galvanizing over 200,000 volunteers.
The Republican National Committee (RNC) hopes to organize 100,000 vote-monitoring volunteers at key polling places. This is a significant number to recruit, and training will be a monumental task. Many doubt that they will reach that target. There do not seem to be any available numbers for the Republican Party’s GOTV (Get Out The Vote) volunteers. Some argue that Republicans don’t need as many volunteers due to the high turnout of hardcore MAGA members.
However, down-ballot Republicans in many races are concerned about the amount of money and attention given to the presidential ticket compared to what states have received in the past. Behind closed doors, some major conservative donors are discussing investing more in Senate campaigns than in the presidential race.
Early voting begins in some states as early as October 8th, with many more starting in the third week of October. Campaigns should work hard to secure as many votes as possible during the early voting period in their state. Tracking early voting by parties and independent groups might indicate who is voting and who might win.
One campaign expert asked, “When was the last time you saw Trump or Vance smile during their campaign events?” They suggested that it would be easy to find photos of Harris and Walz smiling and occasionally laughing. Many undecided voters want to see a campaign filled with joy.
Campaigning is hard work for candidates, staff and volunteers, and it is much better to be on a happy team than one filled with negativity.
In the end, it will come down to who is willing to do the hard work of door-knocking, phone-calling and organizing events to drive the right voters to the polls.
