Any attempt at describing this 2024 outlook should start by recognizing the primacy of politics, because elections will be held in more than 60 countries, comprising half of the world’s population.
For instance, the US economy is starting the new year with strong growth, declining inflation, and low unemployment. However, consumers still do not fully recognize these positive signals. Although there are recent indications of improvement in consumer confidence and record high stock indexes, it is too early to know how economic conditions will influence the November election results in the United States.
Another question refers to the way the Chinese economy has pulled out of the strict measures adopted to control the pandemic. After only 3 percent growth in 2022, last year’s expected rebound reached 5.2 percent, meeting the government’s target. But this also indicated the persistence of a declining trend, reflected in deflationary pressures, a housing sector in crisis, high youth unemployment and an aging population.
The question is if this declining trend in the Chinese economy will persist. According to Harvard professor Lawrence Summers, interviewed in Shanghai and quoted in The New York Times (01/18/24), “Secular stagnation has moved from the Western Hemisphere to China.”
Finally, in 2024, there will be elections in the following Latin American countries: El Salvador, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Panama, Uruguay and perhaps Venezuela.
