For the first time after a year of hostilities in the Middle East, the price of oil climbed this week to almost $80 per barrel, after falling under $70 throughout the year. This ominous fact, given its inflationary potential, clouded a couple of good economic news. First, the settlement reached on the threat of a strike by port workers along the US eastern seaboard, the other was the report of vigorous job creation in September. The strike threatened to disturb supply chains, when retailers are increasing inventories in preparation of the end-of-year festivities. The robust employment report revealed the creation of 254,000 new jobs in September, with a retreat of the jobless rate to 4.1 percent, from 4.2 percent in August. Excluding major surprises, such as an abrupt increase in the price of oil, while inflation declines, the central bank can continue cutting interest rates to achieve the expected soft landing of the US economy.
The next central bank meeting is scheduled to start on November 6, the day after the elections. The expectation this time is for another interest rate rebate of 0.25 per cent, instead of the last rebate of 0.5 percent, which surprised positively. Two relevant reports will be released before the next central bank meeting, one on inflation and the other on employment.
*International analyst and consultant, former Director ECLAC Washington. Commentator on economic and financial issues for CNN en Español TV and radio, UNIVISION, TELEMUNDO and other media.
